The short-term outlook for export revenue is expected to be flat with little change between 2022/23 and 2023/24. Growing conditions were better for South Island Growers than North Island growers, resulting in lower cereal and maize yields.
Domestic grain prices have eased back from the high levels of early 2023 but remain above average. Recent reductions in dairy cattle herd numbers may be contributing to reduced demand for domestic grain and maize silage, along with farmers having sufficient available and stored feed and tighter budgets.
Export Revenue
Arable accounted for 0.5% (NZ$ 242 million)3 of the total export revenue in the food and fibre sector for the year ending March 2023. European Union (excluding UK) is the largest export market for all Arable products (42%), followed by Australia (12%), United States (9%), and China (6%).
Following a peak of $289 million in 2020, Arable export revenue gradually declined, and is expected to stabilise and gradually increase from 2024 onwards, with export revenue from clover seed and vegetable seed offsetting falls in ryegrass seed export revenue.
Across individual Arable products, forecast export revenue fluctuates. Over the years, vegetable seeds have contributed the most to Arable exports, while clover seeds contributed the least. The export revenue of vegetable seeds took a dip in 2022 but is expected to increase in 2023 with export gains continuing to grow in 2024.
GDP Trend
Grain growers' contribution to the economy is expected to decrease in the coming years.
2. IBISWorld, “Grain Growing in New Zealand,” Industry Report (New Zealand: IBISWorld (access is by subscription only), May 2022), https://www.ibisworld.com/
3. Ministry for Primary Industries, “Situation and Outlook for Primary Industries.”