Tō Mātou Ahumahi Industry

Sources: Stats NZ¹ and IBISWorld² - Industry Market Research, Reports, & Statistics

Forest industry export revenue is forecast to be fairly stable through to year ending June 2024, at around $6.5 billion, then steadily increasing thereafter. Domestic demand for wood products is forecast to decline while export demand remains steady. Domestic demand conditions have been challenging for forestry and logging operators. A slowdown in wood product manufacturing and housing construction activity are increasing the reliance on export markets.

Export Revenue

The Forest industry accounted for 12% (NZ$ 6.7 billion)³ of the total export revenue in the food and fibre sector for the year ending March 2023. Forest industry export revenue is forecast at $6.5 billion for the year ending June 2023, very similar to 2021 and 2022 values. China was the largest export market for all forest industry products (54%), followed by Australia (10%), South Korea (7%), and United States and Japan (6% each). Forest industry export revenue is expected to decrease by 1% between June 2022 and 2023 due to low demand from China for logs and impacts on downstream processing due to Cyclones Hale and Gabrielle.

Export revenue from the forest industry decreased notably in 2020 due to COVID-19 followed by a recovery in 2021 and stability thereafter.

Across individual Forest industry products, logs are the biggest contributor to the total industry export revenue, accounting for over 50%. Export revenue from logs dropped⁴ substantially in 2020 due to COVID-19, but quickly bounced back in 2021.

GDP Trend

The estimated contribution to GDP by the Forestry industry peaked in 2018. From 2019 onwards, the estimated contribution to GDP declined and has remained below the 2018 estimate. The estimated forecasts for the next six years are relatively stable.