We want to understand the skills needs of food and fibre industries over the longer term, and what vocational education and training is required to support their aspirations. We also want to be able to look at how different scenarios for each industry will affect the amount of training required.
There is a lack of existing tools or modelling to track how different policies or scenarios might affect the workforce over a long-term period.
The skills forecasting project will deliver a forecasting tool that allows us to track projected changes in the workforces across food and fibre industries, and their skills and training needs, over a 50-year period.
The underpinning tool will be an agent-based microsimulation model. It will be calibrated to actual data on the food and fibre workforce and the qualifications they hold. Effectively, it will provide a month-by-month model of the food and fibre workforce.
The model will be adjustable, allowing users to test different scenarios, questions and assumptions. We will provide a public interface for use by industry, providers, government agencies and others with an interest in the food and fibre sector to explore a range of scenarios. The underlying model will also be available for collaborators to work with us on building and testing out new scenarios.
Key milestones and timeline
- September – December 2023 - Scoping and model outline - complete
- January - June 2024 - Prototype model development- complete
- July - October 2024 - Model quality assurance and refinement- complete
- November - January 2025 Internal stakeholder testing- complete
- February – March 2025 – Industry stakeholder testing and new scenarios capture- complete
- May 2025 – Launch- complete
- June 2025 – Ongoing model and dashboard refinements with additional scenarios
- July 2025 – Development of ethnicity model with scenarios
- August 2025 – Refinement of training model with scenarios on micro credentials
- September 2025 – Final release of model and scenarios
Latest update
In May 2025, we launched the Skills Forecasting tool.
The tool uses a microsimulation model to replicate the food and fibre workforce and simulate how it would look under a variety of different scenarios through to 2050.
Users can assess the potential impact of different training interventions on the workforce's skills profile and evaluate the training necessary to achieve specific industry or workforce goals. We are making progress on refining our beta model and dashboard, incorporating additional refinements and scenarios in the coming months. We will be undertaking further engagements with industry, in support of developing scenarios that inform sector-wide strategic priorities.