Our Arable Workforce Development Plan contains further analysis of Industry, Workforce and Learner data trends.
Arable industry trends
The industry has faced challenges with recent weather but is forecast to grow its export revenue.
Through the production of grain, seed, and other crops, it accounted for 1% (NZ $ 252 million) of the total export revenue in the food and fibre sector1. New Zealand arable systems are unique in that they generally include livestock. Crops are produced on 180,000 hectares of land around New Zealand with the bulk of production centred in the South Island – in the Canterbury region and Southland. The Arable industry supplies seed for animal pastures, grain, and silage for complementary animal feed which means it is the driving force behind our $20 billion livestock industry2. The 2021/22 harvest is considered to be one of the worst on record. The 2022/23 season also had some challenges with cold snaps and heavy rainfall events which made spring planting difficult and delayed planting schedules – especially in the North Island. Yields for maize, grain and silage were slightly down on the previous year but considering the variable weather conditions crop yields exceeded expectations. Based on an average production season, export revenue is forecast to increase five percent for the year to 30 June 20233.
Arable workforce trends
The Arable production sector workforce as a whole is forecast to increase by at least 4% by 2032 with increases being particularly concentrated in higher skill role types that will require increased levels of training. The workforce currently has low levels of formal qualifications and would need a substantially higher than requested level of investment to reach industry benchmark parity (see Appendix C for more detail on the methodology). The workforce has low new entrant retention rates and low levels of industry tenure which drive a need for training of replacements.
Arable workforce overview and highlighted demographics
Arable is one of the smallest Muka Tangata industries, with the second smallest workforce overall, and the smallest production workforce. In 2020 6,210 individuals worked across arable industries. The arable workforce is not as ethnically diverse as other workforces across Muka Tangata industries, with 89% identifying as European (which is the second highest concentration of all the Muka Tangata industries), 9% Māori, 6% Asian and 1% Pacific peoples4.
Arable workforce forecasts
MPI forecasts, using the conservative ‘BAU Scenario’, are for an increase in worker numbers – particularly in higher skill level roles. We have mapped these forecasts to the roles and related qualifications for each of our industries and used them as an input to the level of increase requested for each qualification. See Appendix A: Translating MPI workforce forecasts to learner enrolment numbers for more details.
Arable workforce retention and tenure
The Arable workforce has a low level of new entrant retention and a low level of industry tenure. This replacement demand also is a driver of training requirements in this industry. This training is not lost to the sector – over a third of new entrants to Muka Tangata industries come from another Food & fibre industry and our qualifications are increasingly focused on transferable skills. Specialised education and retention are associated with retention – so increased training is expected to support retention within the industry and broader sector.
