Our Fruit Workforce Development Plan contains further analysis of Industry, Workforce and Learner data trends.
Fruit industry trends
Despite recent short-term volatility and disruption from weather events, industry is forecast to grow substantially – this will drive increases in training needs.
The gradual return of working tourists, RSE workers and increased availability of air freight has improved harvest and freight logistics for the fruit industry1. However, climate change, with the accompanying disruptive weather patterns, such as Cyclone Gabrielle has had a severe impact on the Hawke’s Bay fruit harvests, which means that there will be a long period of recovery for some growers. Warming temperatures in some parts of the country may have benefits for the fruit sector, such as extending growing seasons2, but any benefits are outweighed by the negative effects of increased rainfall variability, droughts, and water shortages.
For the kiwifruit industry, problems escalated with quality issues in late 2022 due to labour shortages, through to poor pollination, flooding, and other adverse weather conditions in early 2023 reducing crop size and impacting exports and finances. However, the outlook for 2024 is looking significantly better.
In the year to 31 March 2023 export revenue is forecast to fall 2.8% to $2.6 billion for the Kiwifruit industry. Despite the challenges facing the industry in the near term, the outlook for the kiwifruit export industry is still positive, with demand for fresh fruit remaining high and export revenue growing by 10% annually over the last five years.
As a niche market, cherry export revenue is forecast to increase 24% to $96 million for the year to 30 June 20233.
By 2022, Aotearoa export revenue for fruit was valued at $4.2 billion. This was a 2.3% increase from the previous year, although revenue for 2023 is forecast to fall by 7.4%4.
Horticulture export revenue as a whole has been growing steadily since 2015 and continued to grow throughout COVID-19. The export revenue is forecast to increase 5% to $7.1 billion in the year ending June 2023.
Fruit workforce trends
Top level: The workforce has been increasing over time but has high levels of seasonal variation (which affect how forecasts should be treated). The horticulture sector workforce as a whole is forecast to increase by at least 16% by 2032 with increases being particularly concentrated in higher skill role types that will require increased levels of training. The workforce currently has low levels of formal qualifications and would need a substantially higher than requested level of investment to reach industry benchmark parity (see Appendix C for more detail on the methodology). The workforce has low new entrant retention rates and low levels of industry tenure which drive a need for training of replacements. The sector has very strong reliance on those on temporary & work visas making the industry vulnerable to changes in immigration trends and policy shifts.
Fruit workforce overview and highlighted demographics
26,770 individuals worked in the fruit industry across 2020. Pacific peoples are the most strongly represented in the fruit industry (of any Muka Tangata industry) at 21%, while Māori represent 17%, and 11% are Asian. The Fruit workforce has the highest reliance on temporary and work visa holders of any of our industries with 14% comprising RSE workers and a further 14% on Working holiday visas in 2020. This makes it vulnerable to changes in immigration trends and policy shifts.
Fruit workforce forecasts
MPI forecasts, using the conservative ‘BAU Scenario’, are for an increase in worker numbers – particularly in higher skill level roles. The Fruit workforce is highly seasonal – this affects how forecasts should be interpreted as the forecasts below are based on a version of an annual ‘full time equivalent’ and therefore will underrepresent the number of actual workers forecast to be in the sector. We have mapped these forecasts to the roles and related qualifications for each of our industries and used them as an input to the level of increase requested for each qualification. See Appendix A: Translating MPI workforce forecasts to learner enrolment numbers for more details.
Figure 6 Data from https://www.workforceinsights.govt.nz/assets/Documents-and-reports/NZIER-MPI-workforce-forecasts-for-2032-FINAL.pdf
Fruit workforce retention and tenure
The Fruit workforce has a low level of new entrant retention and a low level of industry tenure. This replacement demand also is a driver of training requirements in this industry. This training is not lost to the sector – over a third of new entrants to Muka Tangata industries come from another Food and fibre industry and our qualifications are increasingly focused on transferable skills. Specialised education and retention are associated with retention – so increased training is expected to support retention within the industry and broader sector.
