Overarching

The Food & Fibre sector needs more skilled workers – the level of qualifications held by existing workers in our sector is low compared to benchmark levels in other sectors. We need an increase in both a skilled pipeline of new workers to meet workforce increases and a much deeper level of skill to support workforce productivity.

• The increases we are asking for are modest in the context of the current skills gap the sector needs to close to hit parity with benchmark sectors. Analysis of 2018 census data shows that 20% of the Muka Tangata workforce have no qualifications – we would need over 13,000 new training places just to close that gap in this one area and over 30k more trained at Level 4 to achieve parity with benchmark industries at this level¹.

We have not been specific about mode at a qualification level. In general, we recommend a preference for workplace training as part of the mix of the provision across all of our industries. This could include both work-based training and campus-based learning that include a strong component of practical ‘on job’ experience in a workplace setting.

To support greater workplace training provision and choice – we recommend that PTEs are also permitted to deliver funded work-based training.

The rising cost of training is a critical concern for our sector. Many of our industries are struggling with profitability and responding to immediate costs and rising prices². The regional distribution and practical training needs of our workforce also makes it challenging for providers to offer the choice and flexibility of training that our sector needs. Without an appropriate funding/pricing approach to training, our sector will not be able to invest in developing the skills it needs to support our future economic and productivity needs. Muka Tangata is keen to explore funding options to meet these challenges with TEC.

How we determined our advice

Our advice is based on three key inputs:

• MPI workforce forecasts which set the broad workforce supply needs for each industry by skills level (managers/semi-autonomous/managed) (see MPI – Future Workforce Analysis) – we have matched these skills levels to our qualification levels for each of our industries (see Appendix A for details of this analysis)
• The skills needs/gaps identified by industries through our engagement with them (including when developing our Workforce Development Plans) – we have mapped these skills needs to our qualifications (see Appendix B for details of who we have engaged)
• An analysis of the enrolment trends for our qualifications based on Nga Kete data – which we have calibrated against the MPI workforce forecasts.

Things to note

• We have not made specific recommendations for Māori and underserved learners as these are already covered in TEC’s previous Priorities for Investment (Achieving system-wide equity; Honouring Te Tiriti o Waitangi through tertiary education; Education that delivers for learners; Responding to changes in education and training) which we understand will be part of Plan Guidance for 2025.
• We have a number of qualifications that serve multiple sub-industries and industry groupings (for example stranded qualifications for horticulture and agriculture).

We do not have the ability within ‘stranded’ qualifications to see which strand a SDR learner is taking – we therefore have to determine any increase in learner numbers at the level of the total qualification (not the strand).

• We have qualifications with either low enrolment numbers or where any increase would be very small. These qualifications are still important for our industries, but we are not in a position to give a specific increase. We do not expect there to be large demand for these qualifications, but want to ensure that any extra enrolments are funded. We have identified these in the table. We welcome discussion on any proposed delivery numbers that seem excessive.
• In general, we have expressed our increases as a percentage increase of learners on a base of 2022 learner numbers. This is to avoid giving the impression of misleading precision. As noted above, we are wanting to reverse declining trends and change the profile of our workforces to meet the need for more and higher skills. In a few cases, we have given an indication of the increased learner number size. This is where there are relatively small enrolments in a qualification (so percentage increases can be 100% or more). [note that, in general, enrolment numbers in individual qualifications are not large, so bigger percentage increases do not necessarily equate to big learner numbers]
• We have highlighted some areas of regional demand from RSLG insights and from industry engagement at a qualification level. In general, we would expect regional provision of training to mirror the respective industry workforce. Details on the regional distribution of our workforces can be found at a summary level on Te Mata Raraunga with more granular industry information contained within Muka Tangata’s ‘Workforce’ analysis sections of each industry workforce development plans (Links to these are provided in the related industry sections below).
• TEC have requested that we assign different levels of priority to specific qualification increases. Our Advice provides evidence of significantly greater need than we are asking for in this round. We are providing TEC with a balanced portfolio of pragmatic and evidenced increases which total to less than 3,000 extra places (or around 1% of the workforce). Our sector as a whole should be prioritised for investment – but if TEC wish to operate a ‘zero-increase for the sector cap’ policy then this increase in places could largely be offset by indicated potential reductions to New Zealand Certificate in Horticulture (General) (Level 3) which currently has over 3,600 students which analysis and testing with industry bodies indicates are unlikely to be either in the Horticulture workforce or part of the pipeline of new entrants.